Corona effect on economy, sector wise, tough time ahead…
By MYBRANDBOOK
As our new financial year commences, the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected more than eight hundred thousand people in more than 150 countries 1 - a scourge confronting all of humanity, impacting lifestyles, businesses, economies, and the assumption of common wellbeing that all of us have largely taken for granted.
Even before the onset of this pandemic, the global economy was confronting turbulence on account of disruptions in trade flows and attenuated growth. The situation has now been aggravated by the demand, supply and liquidity shocks that COVID-19 has inflicted. Once the pandemic is controlled, the shape and speed of the recovery in the US and China will be key factors determining the nature and traction of global economic recovery.
As per the data published by KPMG, it is our expectation at this time that the course of economic recovery in India will be smoother and faster than that of many other advanced countries. Indeed, the UNCTAD in its latest report ‘The COVID-19 shock to Developing Countries’ has predicted that major economies least exposed to recession would be China and India2 .
While we are now focusing in India on securing the population from health hazards and on providing relief, especially to the poor, we also need to think long-term - to secure the health of the economy, the viability of businesses, and the livelihoods of people. Apart from providing robust safety nets for the vulnerable, ensuring job continuity and job creation is key. And there is an urgent need to mobilise resources to stimulate the economy.
We have put together this paper as a first attempt to address these issues. We foresee seven ways in which the business landscape is likely to evolve in the days to come.
• The shift towards localisation
• Digital gets a real push
• Cash is king for businesses
• Move towards variable cost models
• Building sensing and control tower capabilities
• Supply chain resilience is key
• Building agility
Responding to these will certainly help countries and companies navigate the path to the ‘Next Normal’
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