Thinking Machines Lab, founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, is reportedly in talks to raise at least $1 billion at a pre-money valuation of roughly $40 billion. Existing investor Accel could lead the round, while Nvidia has also considered participating, underscoring continued investor enthusiasm for frontier AI companies.
The valuation is extraordinary for a startup founded only in 2025. Thinking Machines previously raised around $2 billion in one of the largest seed rounds ever, attracting investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Accel, Nvidia, GV, Lightspeed and Conviction, at a reported $12 billion post-money valuation.
Interestingly, the $40 billion valuation is below earlier ambitions. The company reportedly explored raising $4–5 billion at a valuation exceeding $50 billion, suggesting investors remain bullish on AI but may be applying greater discipline to increasingly aggressive valuations.
Thinking Machines is also moving from research toward commercialization. Its open-weight model, Inkling, and Tinker platform allow customers to adapt models using proprietary data, with revenue generated through usage-based compute fees. Its reported annual revenue run rate exceeds $100 million.
Even at that level, a $40 billion valuation represents an enormous revenue multiple. Investors are therefore betting less on current financial performance and more on Mira Murati’s leadership, elite AI talent and the company’s potential position in the future AI stack.
Its relationship with Nvidia strengthens that proposition. Thinking Machines plans to deploy substantial Nvidia Vera Rubin infrastructure beginning in 2027. Frontier AI competition increasingly depends not only on better algorithms, but also on access to compute, chips, energy, capital and data.
The bigger question is whether such valuations are sustainable. Open-weight models are proliferating, inference costs are declining and technological advantages can disappear quickly. Thinking Machines must ultimately convert its talent, capital and computing power into defensible technology, enterprise adoption and profitable growth. The $40 billion valuation is therefore not simply a bet on today's revenue—it is a massive bet on who will control tomorrow's AI economy.
